Breaking Down South Dakota Boys Basketball

Numbers don't lie. Or do they?

For as long as I have been messing around in sports, I have had an appreciation for numbers. As I looked at the South Dakota prep boys basketball scene and explored various numbers from records to victory margins,  I wondered, do numbers tell us something? Do they lead us down a path where we can figure what team will win a title? I think so.

As such, numbers helped me break down the favorites and contenders in the respective classes in South Dakota boys hoops for 2012-13 (For all the girls' supporters,  I will also be breaking down the girls' classes in SD in a blog later  this week -stay tuned).

Here is a breakdown on the three South Dakota boys classes.

Boys AA   

Favorites -- SF Roosevelt, Pierre
In the Hunt -- Brookings, Watertown, Huron, Brandon Valley

Lane Severyn of Pierre Riggs

Sioux Falls Roosevelt, which won its only AA title in 2000, has rolled to a 15-1 record and appear to be the favorite to win the tournament.  Coach Lee Taylor's squad, which only has a loss to Minnesota 2A #4 Marshall, 67-51 on the road, has defeated 15 straight South Dakota foes. They were forced into overtime on the road at SF Lincoln (winning, 64-62) but has built an impressive resume. The up-tempo Roosevelt squad has AA's most explosive offense at 73.18 points per game and  allow just 53.73 per outing for the AA-best 18.62 victory margin. They have broken the 70-point mark 12 times in 16 games. Preseason #1 Pierre Riggs (12-5), which has five losses this year by a total of 11 points, will also be a difficult team to deal with in the postseason. The Governors, which average 65.76 ppg, is a team to watch with its dynamic duo in SDSU recruit Lane Severyn (all-time scoring leader at Pierre with 1,343 career points; 2nd all-time at Pierre with 596 rebounds) and Creighton recruit Zach Hansen (1,198 career points, 2nd all-time at Pierre and 588 rebounds, 3rd all-time). Second-ranked  Brookings (13-4) handed Pierre Riggs a 66-65 loss last week and feature quality players in double figure scorers Braxton Carlson and Tyler Nagy. Watertown (10-6), led by the dynamic guard Tanner Heiser, can bomb away from the perimeter and are a team to keep an eye on. Also pay attention to Brandon Valley (11-6), a team with a bunch of scoring standouts led by Chase Marso and Jacob Adams. Huron (12-6), the top defensive team in AA, could surprise and dangerous SF Lincoln, which pushed Roosevelt to overtime earlier, averages 63.65 points per game and could cause problems in the postseason if they can develop consistency. While Roosevelt has dominated this season, Class AA seems to have several talented teams that all could contend for the title. 

Points  - Offense

1. SF Roosevelt (15-1), 1,171 points, 73.18 ppg

2. Pierre Riggs (12-5), 1,118 points, 65.76 ppg

3. SF Lincoln (9-8), 1,082 points, 63.65 ppg

4. Watertown (10-6), 998 points, 62.37 ppg

5. Brandon Valley (11-6), 913 points, 53.70 ppg

Scoring Defense

1. Huron (12-6), 843 points, 46.83 ppg

2. Brookings (13-4), 803 points, 47.23 ppg

3. Brandon Valley (11-6), 874 points, 51.41 ppg

4. Pierre Riggs (12-5), 910 points, 53.53

5. Roosevelt (15-1), 873 points, 54.56 ppg

Victory Margin

1. Roosevelt (15-1), 18.62 ppg

2. Pierre (12-5), 12.23 ppg

3. Lincoln (9-8), 6.47 ppg
4. Watertown (10-6), 6.37 ppg

5. Brookings (12-4), 4.71 ppg

Boys A  

Favorites -- Clark/Willow Lake, Sioux Falls Christian
In the Hunt -- St. Thomas More, Dakota Valley, Tea Area, Madison

Skyler Flatten of Clark/Willow Lake

In some circles, like Class A, numbers don't always leave a picture of what teams are the best. In this class, #1 Clark/Willow Lake (18-0) is not ranked in the top five in any of the scoring, defensive scoring or victory margin statistical categories. However, Clark/Willow Lake owns a 62.06-to-48.19 ppg differential. and a 13.87 victory margin. Clark/Willow Lake has defeated AA SF Washington (53-49) and defeated #3 St. Thomas More (41-36). The Cyclones feature Skyler Flatten, an SDSU recruit, who has 1,537 career points and is averaging 21.7 ppg this year. The Cyclones will be pushed by #2 SF Christian, which has a 65.81-to-47.25 ppg differential, and a 18.56 victory margin. SF Christian has beaten several ranked A opponents and its recent 62-45 win at #5 Madison (15-2) shows the strength of this team.  SFC is led by dynamic guards Cody Van Holland and Carson Long as well as Nick Stern and 6-6 forward Jordan Baker, a walking double double. Both C/WL and SFC are seeking their first state A title. As for the rest of the class, #3 St. Thomas More (18-1) is one of several squads that could make a run for a state title. STM, the defending champion, is the state's top defensive club at 34.21 ppg. STM's only loss is to Clark/WIllow Lake (41-36, Flatten did not play). Tea Area (14-3) has a roster-full of athletes, including Mitchell Nissen, among others. Dakota Valley, led by the Van Ginkel brothers, advanced to the state title game a year ago and will give Tea Area a battle for the region title. If Madison gets by 17-2 Elkton-Lake Benton in the districts, the Bulldogs will be a team to watch with its 66.11 points per game average and 20.47 victory margin. Class A was a shootout a year ago and should be again.

Scoring

1. St. Francis Indian School (13-4), 1,176 points, 69.18 ppg
2. Red Cloud (13-4), 1,157 points, 68.05 ppg

3. Madison (15-2), 1,124 points, 66.11 ppg
4. Todd County (9-8), 1,120 points, 65.88 ppg

5. Sioux Falls Christian (17-0), 1,115, 65.58 ppg

Defensive Scoring

1. St. Thomas More (18-1), 650, 34.21
2. Aberdeen Roncalli (13-3), 744, 46.5

3. Sisseton (10-6), 750, 46.87

4. Elkton-Lake Benton (17-2), 903, 47.52
5. Miller (11-3), 675, 48.21

Victory Margin

1. Madison (15-2), 20.47 ppg

2. Elkton-Lake Benton (17-2), 19.32 ppg

3. St. Thomas More (18-1), 18.63 ppg
4. Sioux Falls Christian (17-0), 17.64
5. Chamberlain (12-5), 15.60 ppg

Boys B

Favorites -- White River, James Valley Christian
In the Hunt -- Canistota, Viborg-Hurley, Potter County, Dupree, Wolsey-Wessington


The defending B champion White River continues to roll along at 14-1 and is a big favorite to repeat. White River, which has rolled up 88.0 points per game and recorded 12 wins of 20 points or more, will be a difficult team to defend. They are led by standouts Wyatt Krogman, Nic Waln (devastating 3-point artist), Matt Gillen and others. White River has gone over 100 points on four occasions. Unbeaten James Valley Christian has rolled to 17 straight wins. JVC is, led by its own dynamic duo in Nathan Wudel and all-state guard Adam Hofer. A year ago, they lost in the districts but this team, which averages 75.23 points per game, looks to be one of the teams that can challenge White River. JVC has won 15-of-17 games by 10 points or more. #3 Canistota (16-1), which has a 28.0  victory margin differential, has only lost to top-ranked White River as 1,000 point scorers Cody Bunger and Alex Robertson have been difficult to contain as has 6-4 center Jason Van Winkle. A team that bears watching is Wolsey-Wessington (15-1), which has only a loss to JVC by eights points. Wolsey-Wessington, which ends the regular season with a second match-up with JVC, owns a 34.82 victory margin and score at a 75.25 points per game clip. JVC and Wolsey-Wessington will battle in the districts with the winner likely headed to state. Viborg-Hurley (14-2), which will be pushed by 14-3 Centerville in the districts, is also explosive.  Potter County (15-0) is unbeaten and tough defensively and Dupree (16-1) is scoring 75.88 ppg (2nd-best in B) and whipping teams by 30.47 points per game. All of these talented teams leads one to believe Class B will be a difficult field to navigate, even for the defending champions in White River.

Scoring

1. White River (14-1), 1,320, 88.0 ppg

2. Dupree (16-1), 1,290, 75.88 ppg

3. Wolsey-Wessington (15-1), 1,204, 75.25 ppg

4. James Valley Christian (17-0), 1,279, 75.23 ppg

5. Oelrichs (16-1), 1,231, 72.41 ppg

Scoring Defense

1. New Underwood (13-4), 661, 38.88

2. Faith (14-2), 626, 39.125

3. Wolsey-Wessington (15-1), 647, 40.43 ppg

4. South Central (16-1), 689, 40.52

5. Canistota (16-1), 691, 40.65 ppg

Victory Margin

1. White River (14-1), 41.13 ppg

2. Wolsey-Wessington (15-1), 34.82 ppg

3. James Valley Christian (17-0), 32.23

4. Dupree (16-1), 30.47 ppg

5. Canistota (16-1), 28.0 ppg